At the General Assembly of the Hungarian Atlantic Council (HAC), it has become a tradition that before the official agenda, an analytical lecture on a current topic is held. On the occasion of the May 13 General Assembly, the HAC leadership invited Dr. József Kis-Benedek, university professor and retired colonel, to deliver a lecture on the Russian-Ukrainian war as the opening of the council’s election session.
The professor of the National University of Public Service began by stating that the Russian-Ukrainian war, which began on February 20, 2022, is likely to continue for a long time. He agreed with the opinions describing the conflict as a kind of “Russian-American” war, in which neither side is deploying its most advanced military arsenal on a large scale. He said that, in the current situation, Russia may lose its global power status, as the European Union, NATO, and the United States are becoming increasingly united through continuous coordination. As a result of the war, a stronger United States may emerge, which could then clearly focus on strategic competition with China.
József Kis-Benedek stated that the war is completely senseless: on the one hand, it is destroying Ukraine, and on the other, it is pushing Russia into economic collapse. “De facto, Moscow has not yet lost, but de jure, it already has — since its blitzkrieg plans fell apart within weeks. Moreover, Russia has suffered enormous human and material losses,” the speaker declared. He expressed no doubt that after the war, the West will rebuild Ukraine, as major corporations are already lining up to take part in the reconstruction efforts.
He emphasized the fundamental difference that while Russian soldiers are largely unmotivated, Ukrainians are fighting like lions for their homeland and land. The Russians have made a series of mistakes: their military logistics have failed, and some of their weapons systems are not functioning properly. In contrast, the Ukrainians have organized their territorial defense excellently, and Western weapons are reducing Russia’s technological advantage.
The most alarming issue, according to Kis-Benedek, is that the warring parties currently have nothing to negotiate. In the current circumstances, a settlement seems impossible: Russia will not return the territories it has occupied, and Ukraine will not accept major territorial losses. A new security policy system may emerge, NATO will strengthen, and major defense developments will take place in Eastern Europe. The Russian-Ukrainian front will likely freeze somewhere in Eastern Ukraine, but it remains uncertain whether Russia intends or is capable of capturing Odesa, a city key to Black Sea navigation and trade.
The speaker also voiced strong criticism of the United Nations, which — once again — has proven ineffective and inefficient in this conflict.
23 Years in NATO
On November 16, 1997, a national referendum was held in Hungary on the country’s accession to NATO. The question on the ballot was: “Do you agree that the Republic of Hungary should ensure its security by joining NATO?” With a voter turnout of 49.2 percent, 85 percent voted in favor of joining NATO.
Hungary’s official relationship with NATO began on June 27, 1990, when then-Foreign Minister Géza Jeszenszky visited the organization’s headquarters in Brussels. A major step followed in 1991 when Hungary, along with other former Warsaw Pact countries, became a founding member of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council — an official forum created by NATO to engage with post-Soviet states.
It is worth mentioning that 30 years ago, in 1992, our organization, the Hungarian Atlantic Council (HAC), was established. In 1994, NATO and Hungary began practical cooperation with the launch of the Partnership for Peace program. Hungary was among the first to join by signing the framework document in February 1994, which included provisions for military cooperation.
Even before formal accession, Hungary cooperated with NATO during the Yugoslav Wars by supporting stabilization efforts in Bosnia and Herzegovina. From 1995 until the closure of the IFOR and SFOR missions in 2004, the Hungarian Defence Forces participated with their own contingent in peacekeeping operations. Hungarian soldiers performed well, leading to Hungary being invited to join NATO at the Madrid summit in 1997. Accession talks began shortly thereafter.
Following the positive referendum result, Hungary became a full NATO member on March 12, 1999. Just days later, Hungary contributed to a NATO mission during the alliance’s air operation in Yugoslavia prompted by the Kosovo crisis. Hungary has also provided troops to the ongoing KFOR peacekeeping mission.
Hungarian forces have also served in Afghanistan and Iraq. In Afghanistan, they undertook development and reconstruction efforts in Baghlan Province, while in Iraq, Hungary deployed a 300-strong transport battalion.
NATO is generally viewed positively in Hungary. A 2017 poll found that 60 percent of the population supports membership, while only 22 percent believe Hungary does not benefit from being a NATO member. These numbers are comparable to public opinion in the U.S. and the U.K.
NATO remains careful to avoid direct military conflict with Russia and is prepared for Russian aggression. Troops have been deployed or placed on higher readiness in Poland, Germany, Romania, and the Baltic states. In mid-February, President Joe Biden stated that U.S. troops would not fight in Ukraine but promised that NATO members would be defended against Russian expansion. He emphasized that “The United States will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of our power,” referring to Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty, which commits all members to collective defense if one member is attacked.
From today’s perspective, NATO membership is more important than ever for Hungary.
