The war between Russia and Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, has brought about significant geopolitical changes for the surrounding regions as well. The effects of the war—though it is still far too early to draw final conclusions—are already being felt by the Black Sea’s second most powerful state, Turkey. The country finds itself in a particularly unique position: having cultivated good relations with both Ukraine and Russia in recent years, Ankara found itself in an unusual situation when the conflict erupted.
Turkey’s foreign policy, built on balancing between Russia and NATO on one hand, and between Ukraine and Russia on the other, has been put under considerable stress. So far, this situation has allowed Ankara to delay choosing sides, stay out of the sanctions regime, and maintain relatively good relations with both parties under the circumstances. As a result, Turkey has become a credible mediator in the conflict—one it is likely to continue striving to maintain in the future.
This analysis presents the development of Turkey’s relations with Ukraine and Russia, examines its conduct during the war, and assesses Turkey’s mediation efforts.
