At dawn on February 1, 2021, a political era came to an end in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar when the Tatmadaw—the armed forces of the Southeast Asian country—led by Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, detained the leaders of the National League for Democracy (NLD), which had won the general elections held on November 8, 2020. Those arrested included State Counsellor and Foreign Minister Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint. Simultaneously, citing alleged electoral fraud—interpreted by the military as an unlawful and forceful attempt to seize power—the Tatmadaw prevented the scheduled formation of the new parliament.
By paralyzing both the legislative and executive branches, the military leadership took control over the parts of the country where central government authority was still effectively exercised. One year has passed since the coup—enough time for a preliminary assessment. This analysis undertakes such an assessment, with special attention to the development of the country’s internal security situation, the economic consequences of the multifaceted crisis, and the international maneuverability of the military regime.
