What might the new U.S. administration bring, and what can be expected from the newly re-elected President Trump? These were the key questions addressed during the roundtable discussion organized by the Hungarian Atlantic Council on November 27, 2024, at the Kodály Hall of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, under the title “Reflections on NATO’s Future in Light of the U.S. Elections.”
The conversation, while grounded in current issues, sought to interpret global dynamics from both a broader geopolitical perspective and a specifically Hungarian viewpoint. Distinguished guests included:
- Tibor Benkő, former Minister of Defence
- Péter Sztáray, State Secretary for Foreign Affairs
- Gábor Fodor, former Minister of Culture
- Lt. Gen. Attila Takács, Deputy for Territorial Defence, Chief of the General Staff
- István Gyarmati, Secretary General of the Hungarian Atlantic Council
- Hosted and moderated by György Csóti, President of the Hungarian Atlantic Council
Key Themes and Insights:
🔹 György Csóti highlighted that following Trump’s return to the presidency, we should anticipate two major shifts in global politics and three within NATO. He expressed hope for peace in Ukraine, dependent on actions taken by the Biden administration before January 20. He also argued that Trump’s leadership would accelerate the formation of a new world order. NATO, in his view, will return to its original defensive focus with reduced global engagement, and Europe will be expected to contribute more—an initially painful but ultimately beneficial shift.
🔹 Tibor Benkő recalled that already in 2014, under President Obama, NATO had launched internal reforms at the Wales Summit to deepen cooperation and ensure fair burden-sharing, requiring member states to allocate at least 2% of their GDP to defense. Trump strongly emphasized this during his first term. Benkő also addressed divisions among NATO allies regarding the war in Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas. He stressed the need for a common strategic approach to current threats and mentioned the rising role of BRICS, especially China, which poses significant economic and geopolitical challenges to the U.S. and its allies—possibly ushering in a new phase of NATO’s evolution.
🔹 Lt. Gen. Attila Takács discussed the emergence of 4th-generation warfare and the unpredictable pacing of operational phases. He noted that while the war in Ukraine is a conventional conflict, it includes many elements of 4th-gen warfare. He observed a reversal in innovation flow: civilian tech is now influencing the military domain more than the other way around, largely due to post-Cold War defense spending cuts.
🔹 István Gyarmati offered a broader historical perspective, dating the transformation of the world order not to the war in Ukraine, but to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which he sees as the end of the Westphalian order. He predicted the war in Ukraine would not end with a formal peace but simply reach an end—likely in 2025—due to economic constraints. He emphasized that Ukraine needs security guarantees, not territorial ones. Trump’s second term, he argued, may hasten this outcome: “Trump is the lumberjack who isn’t afraid of flying splinters.”
The panel was followed by a vibrant exchange of ideas among the participants and later with the audience. In his closing remarks, György Csóti expressed gratitude and optimism, noting that the speakers conveyed hopeful expectations for NATO’s future rather than concern. He announced that the Council would revisit and reassess the situation in a follow-up event next spring.
