Revolution or Adjustment? Questions Surrounding the Development of the German Armed Forces in Light of the Russia–Ukraine War

Russia’s renewed military aggression against Ukraine not only forced a reassessment of German–Russian relations between February 21 and 27, 2022, but also broke foreign and security policy taboos and led to defense policy decisions that are unprecedented in modern German history.

Although important developments have occurred over the past two months in several areas, this analysis does not focus on the transformation of German–Russian relations, the military and other support provided to Ukraine, or Germany’s contributions to strengthening NATO’s defense and deterrence capabilities. Instead, it concentrates narrowly on the defense policy decisions—also described as “revolutionary”—and their potential implications and implementation.

The central question explored is what the announced increase in defense spending to 2 percent of national GDP and the creation of a €100 billion defense modernization fund mean in practice, what possible uses these resources might have, and what the first policy signals following the political decision suggest in terms of military modernization and capability development.

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